Record applicants and fewer openings
By David L. Marcus and Emily Sohn

The cellphone message from her grandmother brought the bad news: a rejection from California State Polytechnic University, one of her safety schools. Next came another safety, the University of California-San Diego. But when Alexis Guy, a high school senior in San Anselmo, Calif., started getting letters from schools she cared about, it got worse: She opened Berkeley's slender envelope herself, then Stanford's, then New York University's. The final blow came from Northwestern–her first choice. Commiserating with friends, Guy–who works 30 hours a week, has a 3.9 grade-point average, and edits her high school newspaper–had a hunch: "It seems like there are less spaces at colleges this year."

It's not a bad guess. Yes, the number of students vying for spots continues to rise, with some schools reporting as much as a tripling of applications over the past decade. But it's also true that a slew of selective colleges across the country have fewer spots to fill than they did last year. No, it's not a nefarious plot to drive teenagers (and their parents) to the brink of madness. It is just a matter of numbers. For several years, more students than expected have taken up these schools' offers of admission, creating a space crunch on campus. Brandeis University in Massachusetts had 60 extra students matriculate last year; next year, it will have 85 fewer spots. The College of William and Mary in Virginia will have 60 fewer, Wisconsin's Lawrence University, 25 fewer. That might seem like a minor difference, but at smaller schools the change can be significant. At Reed College in Oregon, the 47 fewer spaces meant that 1,731 applicants were vying for only 315 spots.

Cutbacks. Even colleges with the same number of spots are accepting fewer students. The University of Pennsylvania sent out 4,124 acceptance letters this year–199 fewer than last year. That's because, over the past five years, Penn's yield–the number of accepted students who decide to enroll–has risen from 48 percent to 56 percent.

Several factors have made selective colleges even more selective. Foremost is the "echo baby boom": The number of college-age kids nationwide continues to swell. It has also become increasingly easy (and popular) for students to apply to several colleges, as more schools embrace online applications. At the same time, admissions officers are seeing an increase in high-scoring students from all parts of the country. Stanford's rejection letter informed students that the school received more than 19,000 applications for 2,200 places; of them, 5,000 exceeded a 4.0 GPA, and 3,000 scored over 1500 on their SATs. Finally, as more students compete to get into top colleges, more highly qualified applicants are left vying for spaces in the next tier of schools, and the next one.

On top of all that, record numbers of students applied for early decision this year. Tufts University filled 45 percent of its freshman class early, compared with 26 percent 10 years ago. The same goes for dozens of other colleges, like the University of Richmond in Virginia and Hamilton in New York. That means that by the time regular-admission students apply, the doors have already begun to close. "It's heartbreaking when they don't get in," says Michael Thorp, admissions director of Lawrence, where applications are reviewed so carefully that the staff ends up knowing applicants' hobbies by heart.

The good news–and yes, there is some–is that there are still lots of fine schools out there with reasonable admission rates. Dickinson College in Pennsylvania accepted 64 percent of 3,850 applicants; Earlham College in Indiana admitted 77 percent. But try consoling 17-year-old Alexis Guy, an aspiring writer who is considering admission offers from five backup colleges, including George Washington University. Even her acceptances were tinged with bad news: She was admitted to Boston University but not to its prestigious school of communications. "In the admissions process you start out optimistic," says Guy, "and you end up despondent."